Academic Persistence Outcome Expectations Scale (APOE)

Abstract

The Academic Persistence Outcome Expectations (APOE) Scale, developed by Kozlowski and Fouad in 2023, is a 15-item inventory designed to quantify college students’ outcome expectations regarding their continued enrollment in higher education. The scale is theoretically grounded in Bandura’s theoretical framework (1986, 1997) of outcome expectations. It is structurally defined by two primary factors reflecting differential valences: Anticipated Punishments (Negative Outcome Expectations) and Anticipated Rewards (Positive Outcome Expectations).

The APOE incorporates three proposed classes of expectations—physical, social, and self-evaluative—within its item structure for both positive and negative factors. Developed and validated using data from two distinct U.S. university samples, the scale development included rigorous content review by vocational psychologists and both exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. The measure provides strong evidence of internal reliability and convergent validity, with validation samples supporting the independent utility of either or both factors.

Keywords

Academic Persistence Outcome Expectations, Anticipated Punishments, Anticipated Rewards, College Students, Negative Outcome Expectations, Positive Outcome Expectations, Social Cognitive Career Theory, College Academic Achievement, Expectations, Persistence, Punishment, Rewards, Social Cognition, Student Attitudes, Psychoeducational Assessment.

Authors

Kozlowski, Michael B., Fouad, Nadya A.

Purpose

The primary objective of the Academic Persistence Outcome Expectations (APOE) Scale is to systematically assess the spectrum of outcome expectations—both positive and negative—held by college students concerning their decision to continue their academic persistence.

By measuring these expectations, the scale aims to identify motivational factors that either encourage students to remain enrolled (Anticipated Rewards) or discourage them from continuing their studies (Anticipated Punishments). This information is crucial for developing targeted interventions aimed at improving student retention and success.

Construct

The APOE measures the psychological construct of Outcome Expectations (OE) as applied specifically to academic persistence decisions. This construct, central to Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT), refers to a person’s beliefs about the likely consequences of performing a specific behavior—in this case, remaining enrolled in college.

The scale operationalizes OE through a two-factor structure: Anticipated Punishments (Factor 1), representing expected negative outcomes (e.g., stress, financial strain, loss of social time); and Anticipated Rewards (Factor 2), representing expected positive outcomes (e.g., career advancement, sense of purpose, hope for the future). Items within these factors further delineate outcomes into physical, social, and self-evaluative classes, providing a nuanced perspective on the valence and nature of the expected consequences of persistence.

Validity

The APOE scale demonstrates robust evidence across multiple facets of validity established through rigorous psychometric procedures.

Content Validity: Initial item generation involved drafting items based on theoretical work, followed by expert review by two vocational psychologists. While experts agreed that the items effectively captured outcome expectations, some initial discrepancy existed regarding the precise classification of items into physical, social, and self-evaluative categories. Subsequent development and review procedures ensured that the final item set accurately represented the nuanced distinctions within these outcome expectation classes.

Construct Validity: Initial support for the scale’s underlying two-factor structure was provided through Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA). Further structural confirmation was achieved via Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), which indicated that the two-factor model provided a good fit for the data.

Convergent and Concurrent Validity: Data collected from a second independent validation sample of undergraduate students showed good convergent validity. Specifically, APOE scores correlated appropriately with established measures of college self-efficacy and academic goals. Furthermore, the Positive APOE subscale demonstrated good concurrent validity when compared to other existing measures of positive college outcome expectations, collectively supporting the validity of both subscales.

Reliability

The reliability of the Academic Persistence Outcome Expectations Scale was assessed primarily through the examination of its internal consistency across independent samples.

Internal Consistency: Internal consistency was calculated using McDonald’s omega (ω), a preferred measure for estimating reliability. Across two samples of undergraduate students, the reliability estimates confirmed strong internal reliability for both subscales. The Negative APOE subscale yielded McDonald’s omega values ranging from 0.77 to 0.81, while the Positive APOE subscale demonstrated even higher consistency, with values between 0.85 and 0.88. These results indicate that the items within each factor are highly cohesive and measure their respective underlying constructs reliably.

Factor Analysis

The development of the APOE scale involved a rigorous, two-stage factor analysis process to confirm its structural integrity and dimensionality.

Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA): An initial EFA of the item pool, combined with a subsequent item trimming procedure, resulted in the retention of 16 items distributed across two distinct factors: Anticipated Punishments and Anticipated Rewards. This initial two-factor model received further support through a second parallel analysis procedure, alongside favorable model fit statistics, providing a strong basis for the scale structure.

Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA): Following the EFA, a Confirmatory Factor Analysis was performed to rigorously test the hypothesized two-factor structure. The CFA results confirmed that this model provided a good overall fit for the observed data. During this final validation stage, one item that exhibited poor factor loading was removed, resulting in the final, concise 15-item measure.

Instrument

Test Type: Original

Format: The instructions provided to respondents are: “Below are some statements that may reflect your expectations of what will happen to you if you choose to remain in college. Please indicate how strongly you agree/disagree with the following set of statements by using the following five-point scale.” The response scale anchors are “Disagree,” “Somewhat Disagree,” “Not Sure,” “Somewhat Agree,” and “Agree.” Each item begins with the stem: “If I decide to stay in college this year…”

Language Available: English

Population Group: Human (Male, Female, Transgender)

Age Group: Adulthood (18 years and older), Young Adulthood (18-29 years)

Population Details: The study population consisted of undergraduate students in the United States, representing various gender identities including Cisgender Women, Cisgender Men, Transgender individuals, Nonbinary individuals, and Genderqueer individuals.

Test Methodology: Test Validity, Concurrent Validity, Construct Validity, Content Validity, Convergent Validity, Test Reliability, Internal Consistency, Factor Analysis, Confirmatory Factor Analysis, Exploratory Factor Analysis.

Keywords

Academic Persistence Outcome Expectations, Anticipated Punishments, Anticipated Rewards, College Students, Negative Outcome Expectations, Positive Outcome Expectations, Social Cognitive Career Theory, College Academic Achievement, Expectations, Persistence, Punishment, Rewards, Social Cognition, Student Attitudes, Psychoeducational Assessment.

Authors

Author ORCID Identifier: No data is Available (Kozlowski, Michael B.); No data is Available (Fouad, Nadya A.)

Affiliation Email addresses: [email protected] (Michael B. Kozlowski)

Correspondence Address: Kozlowski, Michael B.: Oregon Health and Science University, Department of Psychiatry, 3270 SW Pavilion Loop, Portland, Oregon, United States, 97239-3098, [email protected]

Permissions & Fee and Test Year

Permissions: May be used for research and teaching purposes.

Fee: No

Test Year: 2023

Reference’s

Kozlowski, M. B., & Fouad, N. A. (2023). Development and validation of the Academic Persistence Outcome Expectations Scale. Journal of Career Assessment, 31(3), 555–570. doi:10.1177/10690727221126145

The original reference, including the DOI link, is available here: https://doi.org/10.1177/10690727221126145

Items of the Academic Persistence Outcome Expectations Scale (APOE)

IMPORTANT: The following scale items must be preserved in their original language and must not be changed in any way.

The Academic Persistence Outcome Expectations Scale consists of 15 items. The specific items are available in Table 3 on page 564 of the source reference:

Kozlowski, M. B., & Fouad, N. A. (2023). Development and validation of the Academic Persistence Outcome Expectations Scale. Journal of Career Assessment, 31(3), 555–570. doi:10.1177/10690727221126145

Item Description	Disagree	Somewhat Disagree	Not Sure	Somewhat Agree	Agree
F1: Anticipated Punishments (Negative OE)
1. I will feel anxious
2. I will feel depressed
3. I will have no time to do anything else
4. I will not have enough money to pay my bills
5. I will not be able to see my friends as often as I like
6. I will feel as though I am consistently behind
7. I will not be able to manage all of my responsibilities
8. I will feel stressed
F2: Anticipated Rewards (Positive OE)
1. I will feel like I’m going in the right direction with my career
2. I will be closer to beginning my career
3. I will have hope for a better future
4. I will feel like my career is moving forward
5. I will feel optimistic about my future
6. I will feel like I have purpose
7. I will feel excited