Desire for Certainty Test

Abstract

The Desire for Certainty Test is a specialized psychological scale developed by Orville G. Brim, Jr. in 1955. It was designed to measure individual differences in the need for certainty or sureness when making judgments about the likelihood of various future events or the truth of specific propositions. The instrument assesses how comfortable an individual is with ambiguity and uncertainty across a wide range of social, economic, and personal domains. This construct is crucial for understanding how individuals approach decision-making and cope with unpredictable environments.

The scale consists of 32 items covering diverse content areas, including education, politics, economics, religion, health, and family. While some items require the estimation of objective probability, the primary score derived from the test reflects the respondent’s subjective degree of sureness regarding their own predictions, differentiating those who strongly seek definitive answers from those more tolerant of uncertainty.

Keywords

Desire for Certainty, Need for Certainty, Ambiguity Tolerance, Probability Judgment, Social Psychology, Attitude Measurement, Brim Scale, Cognitive Style.

Authors

Orville G. Brim, Jr., Donald B. Hoff, John P. Robinson, Phillip R. Shaver

Purpose

The primary purpose of the Desire for Certainty Test is to quantify the degree to which an individual requires definitive knowledge or high subjective certainty when evaluating the likelihood of events. It aims to identify those who are highly averse to uncertainty and those who are more tolerant of ambiguous situations. Brim initially framed this measurement in the context of attitude content and intensity research, examining how strongly held beliefs correlate with the perceived likelihood of events.

The scale utilizes a diverse set of real-world propositions, covering areas such as family life, economics, politics, and health, forcing respondents to articulate their level of conviction regarding the outcomes of these varied events. This breadth allows researchers to determine if the desire for certainty is a generalized personality trait or domain-specific, providing insight into individual cognitive styles regarding prediction and risk assessment.

Construct

The core construct measured is the individual’s propensity to seek absolute assurance or high subjective probability in their expectations. High scores reflect a strong Desire for Certainty, indicating a psychological need for structure and predictability in the environment, often linking to related concepts such as the Need for Cognitive Closure or intolerance of ambiguity.

The measurement captures two related dimensions: the objective probability estimation (in the first two items) and the subjective feeling of sureness associated with that estimate (the primary scoring mechanism). This differentiation allows for the study of the relationship between perceived reality and the psychological comfort derived from one’s level of conviction, regardless of actual statistical probability expectations.

Validity

While detailed psychometric reports on validity are often found in subsequent publications, the initial development focused on ensuring the items spanned relevant life domains (social, political, economic) to achieve strong face validity. Brim and Hoff’s 1957 work suggested that the scale demonstrated construct validity by differentiating individuals based on their response patterns to ambiguous versus statistically definable events.

The scale’s inclusion in major compilations of social psychological measures, such as the 1969 volume by Robinson and Shaver, further attests to its recognized utility in measuring individual differences in cognitive styles relating to uncertainty and prediction.

Reliability

Specific data regarding internal consistency (e.g., Cronbach’s Alpha) or test-retest reliability are not explicitly detailed in the provided excerpt. However, scales of this nature typically undergo checks for stability over time and consistency across items. Research utilizing the instrument, such as Brim and Hoff (1957), implies acceptable reliability for use in differentiating groups, particularly in relation to situational variables that might influence the need for certainty.

Factor Analysis

No formal factor analysis results are detailed in the initial documentation, suggesting the scale was likely intended to be relatively unidimensional in measuring the overarching desire for certainty, or that the domains (education, politics, health, etc.) were treated as sub-content areas rather than distinct factors. Later researchers reviewing the instrument have generally treated it as a single score reflecting generalized certainty-seeking behavior across diverse topics.

Instrument

Test Type: Self-Report Attitudinal/Cognitive Style Scale

Format: 32 items, utilizing a combination of fill-in-the-blank probability estimates (Items 1-2) and a 5-point Likert scale for subjective certainty (Items 3-32). The certainty response ranges from 1 (very sure) to 5 (not sure at all).

Language Available: English (Original)

Population Group: General Adult Population

Age Group: Adults

Population Details: Originally standardized and applied primarily to American adults, particularly American males in the context of the 1955 study items, which reflect demographic and social concerns of that era.

Test Methodology: Respondents first estimate the likelihood of an event occurring (Items 1-2, percentage completion) or judge the likelihood of a proposition (Items 3-32, completion of the sentence). They then rate their level of subjective sureness regarding their judgment using a 5-point scale, where 1 means very sure and 5 means not sure at all.

Keywords

Psychometrics, Social Attitudes, Cognitive Style, Uncertainty, Psychological Measurement, Brim, 1955.

Authors

Author ORCID Identifier: N/A

Affiliation Email addresses: N/A

Correspondence Address: N/A

Permissions & Fee and Test Year

The scale was published in 1955 by O. G. Brim, Jr. It is considered an early, classic measure in social psychology and is generally available for academic research use via published academic sources and compilations. The original PDF compilation containing this instrument, titled “Measures of Social Psychological Attitudes,” can be downloaded here: https://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/dis/infoserv/isrpub/pdf/Measuresofsocialpsychologicalattitudes_2928_.PDF

Reference’s

Brim, O.G., Jr. (1955). Attitude content – intensity and probability expectations. American Sociological Review, 20, 68-76.

Brim, O. G., Jr., & Hoff, D. B. (1957). Individual and situational differences in desire for certainty. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 54(2), 225-229.

Robinson, John P., Shaver, Phillip R. (1969). Measures of Political Attitudes. Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan. Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Items of the Desire for Certainty Test

IMPORTANT: The following scale items must be preserved in their original language and must not be changed in any way.

1. The chances that an adult American male will earn at least $4000 a year are about…. in 100.
2. The chances that a student entering law school will quit before getting his law degree are about…. in 100.
3. ___________ frequent thumb sucking during childhood will make teeth stick out (cause buck teeth) ___________.
4. ___________ the president of the United States will be a man without a college education___________.
5. ___________ a major league baseball team will win the pennant if it is in first place July 4th ___________.
6. ___________ a sexual pervert will have a low intelligence (IQ 80 or less) ___________.
7. ___________ a high school graduate will go on to a freshman year in college ___________.
8. ___________ a couple getting married this year will later have divorce ___________.
9. ___________ an American male now at the age of 40 will live beyond the age of 55 ___________.
10. ___________ an American family will live in a place without a telephone___________.
11. ___________ an American family will own its own home ___________.
12. ___________ the telephone number you call will be busy___________.
13. ___________ an American citizen will believe in God ___________.
14. ___________ a varsity football player in an American university will be subsidized (given money for his football ability) ___________.
15. ___________ an American city of over 50‚000 people will have a chapter of the League of Women Voters ___________.
16. ___________ the governor of a state will be elected for a second term in office ___________.
17. ___________ a son will go in to the same kind of work as his father ___________.
18. ___________ a man 70 years old will need financial help from someone to support himself ___________.
19. ___________ spanking a child will make him tell the truth next time ___________
20. ___________ an American-born baby will get a poor and inadequate diet during his first year of life ___________.
21. ___________ an adult male will stay home instead of going to church on Sunday ___________.
22. ___________ a sixth grade teacher in the public schools will be a man ___________.
23. ___________ a child whose parents are divorced will be neurotic ___________.
24. ___________ in the United States that a girl will be married before the age of 17___________.
25. ___________ a world’s champion boxer comes from a poor family ___________.
26. ___________ an American citizen will be bilingual (speak two languages) ___________
27. ___________ a five card deal will have two cards of the same kind (one pair) __________.
28. ___________ a man with a broken neck will die ___________.
29. ___________ a crime in the United States will be solved (someone arrested and convicted for it) ___________.
30. ___________ the number of auto accidents in a year will be higher than for the year just before ___________.
31. ___________ a small business (for examples‚ gas station‚ motel) will fail within 2 years after starting ___________.
32. ___________ the person one marries will have the same religion___________.

The items cover the domains of education, recreation, politics, economics, religion, health, family, transportation, and communication.