Identifying the Tendency to Drop Out in Dual Studies Instrument (MISANDS)

Abstract

The identifying the tendency to drop out in dual studies instrument (MISANDS) is a psychometric tool designed for the multidimensional measurement of the dropout tendency among students enrolled in dual study programs. Although primarily developed for this specific cohort, certain subscales of the instrument are also applicable to traditional university students.

The MISANDS originated from an earlier instrument focused on trainee dropout (Deuer, 2006) and was adapted for dual students as part of the research project, "Course of studies – setting the course, success criteria and hurdles in the course of dual studies at the DHBW" (Deuer et al., 2017). The validation analysis utilized data from 1,429 first-year dual students (N=1429) across social work, technology, and economics disciplines at the Baden-Württemberg Cooperative State University (DHBW). The current version consists of 8 items structured into two distinct factors, confirmed through both exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. The instrument demonstrates good measurement accuracy and acceptable prognostic validity, verified against actual dropout data collected 22 months post-survey (January 2019) using Receiver-Operating-Characteristic curves (ROC curves).

Keywords

MISANDS, dual studies, dropout tendency, student attrition, study success, higher education research, prognostic validity, early detection, Cooperative State University

Authors

Ernst Deuer, Steffen Wild

Purpose

The primary purpose of the MISANDS is the standardized and multidimensional recording of the inclination of dual students to prematurely terminate their studies. This instrument was specifically developed to meet the growing demand in German higher education for tools capable of identifying potential dropouts during an early phase of their academic career, thereby enabling timely intervention measures.

The scale is suitable for use in both basic and applied research, such as evaluating interventions designed to improve study conditions or the quality of teaching. Given its high reliability, the instrument is also recommended for individual diagnostics. While designed for early application (as most dropouts occur in the first year), it remains useful throughout the entire duration of the study program.

Construct

The MISANDS measures the multidimensional tendency to drop out, recognizing that attrition is a complex result of individual and institutional interaction patterns, aligning with established models in higher education research (e.g., Tinto, Bean). The instrument is structured around two distinct dimensions, reflecting the dual nature of cooperative education in Germany:

• Program-Related Dropout Tendency (studiengangsbezogene Abbruchneigung): This dimension focuses on the student’s satisfaction, commitment, and intent to leave related specifically to the academic course of study itself (e.g., curriculum, university environment).
• Training Institution-Related Dropout Tendency (ausbildungsstättenbezogene Abbruchneigung): This dimension addresses the student’s satisfaction, commitment, and intent to leave concerning their practical training placement or cooperative company (Ausbildungsstätte/Praxisstelle).

The items are theoretically grounded in the Theory of Rational Action, suggesting that dropout occurs when perceived effort outweighs perceived benefit, and in research concerning organizational satisfaction, adapted from industrial psychology to the student context.

Validity

Multiple forms of validity were assessed during the scale development and validation process:

• Content Validity: Content validity was established through the initial adaptation from the antecedent scale (Deuer, 2006) and subsequently confirmed via review by an expert team, ensuring items were relevant and easily understood by the target population.
• Factorial Validity: Both exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses supported the theoretical two-factor structure (Program-Related and Institution-Related Tendency).
• Prognostic Validity (Predictive Validity): This was verified by comparing scale scores from March 2017 against actual dropout status recorded 22 months later (January 2019). ROC analysis yielded an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.68 for the Program-Related scale and AUC = 0.60 for the Institution-Related scale. While not extremely high, these values are interpreted as acceptable for predicting actual attrition. Point-biserial correlations further supported this, showing small but significant effects (r_bis = 0.25 for program, r_bis = 0.17 for institution).

The authors suggest future research should focus on establishing Construct Validity by correlating MISANDS results with other established German instruments measuring dropout intention, and Concurrent Criterion Validity by analyzing the relationship between MISANDS scores and academic performance indicators, such as Grade Point Average (GPA).

Reliability

The internal consistency for the MISANDS subscales was assessed using two metrics, recognizing that the scales are tau-congeneric (having unequal factor loadings), which necessitates the use of more robust measures than traditional Cronbach’s Alpha:

• Internal Consistency (Cronbach’s Alpha): The overall consistency ranged from α = 0.86 to α = 0.88 across the subscales, indicating high reliability.
• Raykov’s Rho (ρ): This measure, suitable for tau-congeneric structures, confirmed the strong internal consistency, yielding values of ρ = 0.87 for the Program-Related Dropout Tendency and ρ = 0.88 for the Institution-Related Dropout Tendency.

Factor Analysis

The validation process involved two main stages of factor analysis using data from N=1429 first-year students:

• Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA): A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed on the 8 items. An Oblimin rotation was applied due to the expected correlation between the study program component and the workplace component. The analysis yielded a theoretically sound two-component solution, accounting for 73% of the total variance. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) measure of sampling adequacy was 0.79, and Bartlett’s Test of Sphericity was highly significant (p ≤ 0.000), supporting the factorability of the data. Factor loadings were strong, with α ≥ 0.77.
• Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA): The hypothesized two-dimensional structure was tested using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) employing Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Robust standard errors (MLR) due to non-normal data distribution. The model fit indices demonstrated an acceptable fit (Chi² = 208.97, df = 15, p < 0.001; CFI = 0.95; RMSEA = 0.09). Latent factors showed a medium and highly significant inter-correlation (Ψ = 0.37, p < 0.001), confirming the two-factor structure of the MISANDS.

Instrument

Test Type: Self-report questionnaire, Psychometric Scale

Format: 8 items administered via a 4-point Likert scale.

Language Available: German (deutsch)

Population Group: Dual students (Cooperative Education students); parts of the instrument applicable to traditional university students.

Age Group: University level students (average age in validation sample: 21.78 years).

Population Details: Students at the Baden-Württemberg Cooperative State University (DHBW) across three study areas: Social Work, Technology, and Economics.

Test Methodology: The scale uses a four-stage response format: 1 = yes (ja), 2 = rather yes (eher ja), 3 = rather no (eher nein), 4 = no (nein). Scoring involves calculating an unweighted mean score for each subscale after recoding the negatively poled items (Items 5-8) to ensure high scores reflect a higher dropout tendency. The instrument is highly economical, requiring only 2-3 minutes to complete and 5 minutes for evaluation.

Keywords

Abbruchneigung, DHBW, psychological assessment, psychometrics, predictive validity, scale development, student retention, higher education dropout

Authors

Author ORCID Identifier: Not provided in source.

Affiliation Email addresses: [email protected], [email protected]

Correspondence Address: Ernst Deuer, Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Ravensburg, Marktstraße 28, 88212 Ravensburg, Germany.

Permissions & Fee and Test Year

Permissions/Fee: Information regarding permissions and fees is not provided in the source documentation. Interested parties should contact the corresponding authors.

Test Year: Developed in 2016, validated in 2017 (Panel Wave 2 data) and further validated in 2018. The predictive validity check used dropout data up to January 2019.

Reference’s

• Deuer, E. & Wild, S. (2017). Die Messung der Abbruchneigung im Rahmen der ersten Erhebungswelle des DHBW-Studierendenpanels – Begründung und Entwicklung eines Instruments zur Früherkennung von Studienabbrüchen. Forschungsbericht 2/2017 [Measurement of drop-out tendency in first panel wave of Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University – Justification and development of a tool for the early detection of student drop-out. Research paper 2/2017]. Stuttgart, Deutschland: Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg.
• Deuer, E., & Wild, S. (2018). Validierung eines Instruments zur Erfassung der Studienabbruchneigung bei dual Studierenden. Forschungsbericht 4/2018 [Validation of an instrument for measuring student drop-out tendency for co-op students. Research paper 4/2018]. Stuttgart, Deutschland: Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg.

Items of the identifying the tendency to drop out in dual studies instrument (MISANDS)

IMPORTANT: The following scale items must be preserved in their original language and must not be changed in any way.

Tabelle 1

Items des MISANDS