Failure analysis is the process of collecting and analyzing data to determine the cause of a failure. It is an important discipline in many branches of manufacturing industry, such as the electronics industry, where it is a vital tool used in the development of new products and for the improvement of existing products. It relies
Backward chaining (or backward reasoning) is an inference method that can be described (in lay terms) as working backward from the goal(s). It is used in automated theorem provers, proof assistants and other artificial intelligence applications, but it has also been observed in primates. In game theory, its application to (simpler) subgames in order to
Forward chaining is one of the two main methods of reasoning when using inference rules (in artificial intelligence) and can be described logically as repeated application of modus ponens. Forward chaining is a popular implementation strategy for expert systems, business and production rule systems. The opposite of forward chaining is backward chaining. Forward chaining starts
In computer science, divide and conquer (D&C) is an important algorithm design paradigm based on multi-branched recursion. A divide and conquer algorithm works by recursively breaking down a problem into two or more sub-problems of the same (or related) type, until these become simple enough to be solved directly. The solutions to the sub-problems are
The de Bono Hats system (also known as “Six Hats” or “Six Thinking Hats”) is a thinking tool for group discussion and individual thinking. Combined with the idea of parallel thinking which is associated with it, it provides a means for groups to think together more effectively, and a means to plan thinking processes in
LogoVisual thinking (also LogoVisual technology and LVT) is a practical methodology that helps people think. It is used by management teams, project leaders, teachers and students as a means of tapping the diversity of groups and enabling many people to participate in effective thinking processes. It makes thinking visible and tactile by making ideas into
Decision making can be regarded as the mental processes (cognitive process) resulting in the selection of a course of action among several alternative scenarios. Every decision making process produces a final choice. The output can be an action or an opinion of choice. Overview Human performance in decision terms has been the subject of
Group decision making is a situation faced when people think or are brought together to solve problems in the anticipation that they are more effective than individuals under the idea of synergy. But cohesive groups display risky behavior in decision making situations that led to the devotion of much effort, especially in the area of
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) or Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is a discipline aimed at supporting decision makers faced with making numerous and sometimes conflicting evaluations. MCDA aims at highlighting these conflicts and deriving a way to come to a compromise in a transparent process. Background Unlike methods that assume the availability of measurements, measurements
People are fascinated by paradoxes as usually they express true statements or facts which, however, defy common intuition. This particular paradox relates to decision making and it was first identified by Triantaphyllou and Mann in 1989. It was further elaborated in the book by Triantaphyllou on multi-criteria decision making. Since then it has been recognized
Decision Analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision, for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected
Satisficing, a portmanteau “combining satisfy with suffice”, is a decision-making strategy that attempts to meet criteria for adequacy, rather than to identify an optimal solution. A satisficing strategy may often be (near) optimal if the costs of the decision-making process itself, such as the cost of obtaining complete information, are considered in the outcome calculus.
Flipism, sometimes written as “Flippism”, is a pseudophilosophy under which all decisions are made by flipping a coin. It originally appeared in the Disney comic “Flip Decision” by Carl Barks, published in 1953. Barks called a practitioner of “Flipism” a “Flippist” (with two P’s). Flipism can be seen as a normative decision theory, although it
Attitude polarization, also known as belief polarization, is a phenomenon in which a disagreement becomes more extreme as the different parties consider evidence on the issue. It is one of the effects of confirmation bias: the tendency of people to search for and interpret evidence selectively, to reinforce their current beliefs or attitudes. When people
Illusory correlation is the phenomenon of seeing the relationship one expects in a set of data even when no such relationship exists. When people form false associations between membership in a statistical minority group and rare (typically negative) behaviors, this would be a common example of illusory correlation. This happens because the variables capture the
Cognitive inertia refers the tendency for beliefs or sets of beliefs to endure once formed. In particular, cognitive inertia describes the human inclination to rely on familiar assumptions and exhibit a reluctance and/or inability to revise those assumptions, even when the evidence supporting them no longer exists or when other evidence would question their accuracy.
Wishful thinking is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence, rationality or reality. Studies have consistently shown that holding all else equal, subjects will predict positive outcomes to be more likely than negative outcomes (see valence effect). Donald Lambro described wishful
Optimism bias is the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be overly optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. This includes over-estimating the likelihood of positive events and under-estimating the likelihood of negative events. Along with the illusion of control and illusory superiority, it is one of the positive illusions to which people are generally
The planning fallacy is a tendency for people and organizations to underestimate how long they will need to complete a task, even when they have past experience of similar tasks over-running. The term was first proposed in a 1979 paper by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Since then the effect has been found for predictions
Anchoring or focalism is a cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or “anchor,” on one trait or piece of information when making decisions. Background During normal decision-making, anchoring occurs when individuals overly rely on a specific piece of information to govern their thought-process. Once the anchor is set
Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within groups of people. Group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative ideas or viewpoints. Antecedent factors such as group cohesiveness, structural faults, and situational context play into the likelihood of whether or not groupthink will impact the decision-making process
Peer pressure refers to the influence exerted by a peer group in encouraging a person to change his or her attitudes, values, or behavior in order to conform to group norms. Social groups affected include membership groups, when the individual is “formally” a member (for example, political party, trade union), or a social clique. A
In debate or rhetoric, a slippery slope (also known as thin edge of the wedge, or the camel’s nose) is a classic form of argument, arguably an informal fallacy. A slippery slope argument states that a relatively small first step leads to a chain of related events culminating in some significant effect, much like an
Attribution is a concept in social psychology referring to how individuals explain causes of behavior and events. Attribution theory is an umbrella term for various theories that attempt to explain these processes. Fritz Heider first proposed a theory of attribution The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations (1958). It was further developed by others such as Harold